Friday, 20 April 2012

Scarpe diem- A new Shoe-throwing index for Europe

As is well known, shortly before the Arab Spring, there was a great discussion of the simmering anger of the oppressed people of the US-friendly governments in the Middle East. This was known as the shoe-throwing index after the brave journalist who felt driven to chuck his sneakers at Bush, the younger, when he was in Baghdad. Having someone under-foot is an insult of great symbolism in Arabic culture.
Observe this subtitled bilingual version of the famous video to see what the brave fella had to say before playing bounce-the-shoe-off-the-asshole
This led to a boost in sales for the shoe maker, a factory in Turkey.

What the Economist forgot was that Europe is now slowly boiling over.
So, what about a STI index in three parts
-likelihood of blood being spilt
-likelihood of government killing of protestors
-likelihood of societal breakdown 

STI: Eurozone 
graphics later, from the department for graphics
Greece- 100%/ 85%/ 25%
Portugal- 78%/ 50%/ 15%
Ireland- 65%/ 65%/ 20%
Italy- 100%/ 50%/ 35% [scarpe]
Spain- 100%/ 50%/ 35%

I'll link this with Orlov's system, soon.

Societal breakdown will occur first in Italy and Spain and then the whole Union
why? Italy and Spain are large countries, and former imperialists, so they won't stand
for this bullsh*t. Neither the people, nor the government.

watch for updates of the chart
More, soon

societal breakdown- (def) when the normal running of a large part of a society is stopped by protest or by government reaction
100%=already happened

IshitUnot: original Economist story The Shoe-Thrower's index
Feb 9th 2011, 14:50 by The Economist online
..An index of unrest in the Arab world IN THIS week's print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and ascribing different weights to them we have come up with the Shoe-Thrower's index, which aims to predict where the scent of jasmine may spread next. Some factors are hard to put a number on and are therefore discounted. For instance, dissent is harder in countries with a very repressive secret police (like Libya). The data on unemployment were too spotty to be comparable and so this important factor is discounted too. We took out the Comoros and Djibouti, which do not have a great deal in common with the rest of the group, and removed the Palestinian territories, Sudan and Somalia for lack of data. The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked. Post suggestions in the comments below and we will refine it....